The USMCA (T-MEC in Mexico) was not extended at its first joint review on July 1, 2026, but it remains in force. The three countries now review it every year, and the United States has opened a new public consultation ahead of the 2027 review: comments are due by January 12, 2027.
This article explains where the review stands, what has and has not changed for companies that export from Mexico to the United States, and what to prepare. It is general information, not legal advice. Reviewed on November 14, 2026.
What happened and when
The rule. Under Article 34.7 of the agreement, the USMCA ends 16 years after its entry into force unless each country confirms that it wants a new 16-year term. The agreement entered into force on July 1, 2020, so the current term runs until July 1, 2036. On the sixth anniversary, the three countries hold a joint review in which each head of government confirms in writing, or not, the wish to extend.
July 1, 2026. The Free Trade Commission met virtually for that first joint review. According to the Federal Register notice, the United States "did not agree to extend the Agreement for a new 16-year term". In his statement of the same day, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States did not agree to renew the agreement "in its current form", referred to its shortcomings and to U.S. trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, and said that the agreement remains in force pending resolution of those issues or until it terminates.
Mexico's position. Mexico's Secretaría de Economía reported that Secretary Marcelo Ebrard presented a letter from President Claudia Sheinbaum in favor of moving toward an extension, that the three countries agreed to hold annual reviews, and that the agreement continues in force until 2036.
The consequence. When a country does not confirm, Article 34.7.4 requires a joint review every year until the agreement expires. At any time before that, the three countries can still extend it for 16 years if their heads of government confirm it in writing.
Bilateral talks. The United States and Mexico have also negotiated in bilateral rounds. A joint statement of July 23, 2026, issued during the third round in Mexico City, lists the topics reviewed: economic security, labor, agriculture, electronic payment services, steel and aluminum (including derivative products) and automobiles. It scheduled a fourth round for September 2026 in Washington, D.C.
The new consultation. On October 2, 2026, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced a public consultation ahead of the 2027 joint review. The notice was published in the Federal Register on October 5, 2026 (91 FR 63379).
What the USTR notice asks for
- Deadline. Written comments and requests to appear at the public hearing are due by 11:59 p.m. EST on January 12, 2027. Requests to appear must include a summary of the testimony.
- Dockets. USTR-2026-0595 for written comments and USTR-2026-0596 for requests to appear.
- Hearing. The notice does not set a date or place; USTR says it will publish them on its website. Post-hearing rebuttal comments are due seven calendar days after the last day of the hearing.
- Topics. Any aspect of the operation or implementation of the agreement; compliance issues; recommendations for specific actions USTR should propose ahead of the joint review; factors affecting the investment climate in North America and in each of the three countries; and strategies for strengthening North American economic security and competitiveness and cooperation on issues related to non-market policies and practices of other countries.
- Format. Submissions go through USTR's comments portal, must be in English and do not require an account. Third-party organizations should identify the full legal name of the organization they represent and a primary point of contact, and pages with business confidential information must be marked as such and accompanied by a public version.
What has not changed
The notice is a request for comments. It contains no change to tariffs, rules of origin or any other provision of the agreement. The USMCA remains in force, and the Secretaría de Economía stated on July 1 that Mexico will continue to export more than 80% of its products to the United States without paying duty.
That does not mean every Mexican product enters the United States duty-free. Separate U.S. measures, such as the Section 232 tariffs, apply on their own terms; we covered one example in Section 232 and USMCA: the U.S. content rule for machinery made in Mexico.
Who is affected
- Mexican exporters whose price in the United States depends on USMCA preferential treatment.
- U.S. importers of Mexican goods, who claim the preference when the goods enter.
- Companies in the sectors named in the bilateral talks: automotive, steel and aluminum and their derivatives, and agriculture.
- Anyone signing multi-year contracts or planning investments whose return depends on the current rules staying in place beyond the short term.
What to do now
- Keep your origin compliance in order. The preference is still available to goods that qualify. Keep the certification of origin and the records that support it current for every product.
- Map your exposure. List which products depend on the preference and whether they fall in the sectors under discussion. That tells you how closely you need to follow the review.
- Decide whether to take part in the consultation. If a rule or a practice affects your operation, the deadline is January 12, 2027. If you file, the submission must be in English.
- Watch for the hearing date on USTR's website and for the communications of the Secretaría de Economía on Mexico's position.
- Review long-term contracts. Consider clauses that say what happens to price and delivery terms if tariff treatment changes. Our Incoterms guide explains who bears duties under each term.
- Do not act on headlines. Check any announced change against the official text before you change how you operate.
For the practical side of the border, see shipping to Mexico from the USA and our compliance tips for U.S.–Mexico trade.
Frequently asked questions
Is the USMCA still in force after the July 2026 review?
Yes. The United States did not agree to extend it for a new 16-year term, but the agreement was not terminated. The Federal Register notice and Mexico's Secretaría de Economía both describe annual reviews from now on.
When does the USMCA expire if it is not extended?
On July 1, 2036, 16 years after its entry into force. The three countries can extend it at any time before then.
What is the deadline to send comments to USTR on the USMCA review?
January 12, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. EST, both for written comments and for requests to appear at the hearing.
Did the joint review change the tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States?
No. The October notice contains no change to tariffs or rules of origin, and the official statements on the July 1 review announce none. Other U.S. measures, such as Section 232 tariffs, are separate from the review.
How Flux Forwarders can help
Flux Forwarders coordinates cross-border and international freight between Mexico and the United States with a network of agents and licensed customs brokers. We do not give legal or tariff opinions, but we can help you keep the shipping documents consistent with what your importer needs to declare. Contact us or request a quote.
Sources
- Request for Public Comments and Notice of Public Hearing Relating to the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada, Federal Register, October 5, 2026 (91 FR 63379)
- USTR Seeks Public Comment on the 2027 Joint Review of USMCA, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, October 2, 2026
- Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, July 1, 2026
- Joint Statement from Ambassador Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, July 23, 2026
- Quinta Reunión de la Comisión de Libre Comercio del T-MEC, Comunicado no. 55, Secretaría de Economía, July 1, 2026
- USMCA, Chapter 34 (Final Provisions), International Trade Administration
